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16-Dec-2004 - My Year of Living Dangerously

25-Nov-2004 - Corporate Support for Republicans

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1-Nov-2004 - Latest Polls

31-Oct-2004 - Words of Encouragement

31-Oct-2004 - Vote for Kerry Even in Safe States

31-Oct-2004 - Halloween Election News

30-Oct-2004 - Today's Political News

29-Oct-2004 - Political News of the Day

28-Oct-2004 - John Kerry's Historic Endorsements

28-Oct-2004 - 25 Years Combating LGBT Violence

28-Oct-2004 - Daily Political Updates

28-Oct-2004 - How You Can Protect Your Right to Vote

27-Oct-2004 - The Last Straw

27-Oct-2004 - Conservative Quotes for Kerry

27-Oct-2004 - Breaking Political News

27-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 5

26-Oct-2004 - Another Look at Taking Back the Senate

26-Oct-2004 - Breaking News of the Day

25-Oct-2005 - Breaking Political News of the Day

24-Oct-2004 - Can the Democrats Regain the House?

23-Oct-2004 - Early Voting Trends

23-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 4

22-Oct-2004 - Bush OKs New Corporate Tax Cut

22-Oct-2004 - Beware Fox News and MSNBC

21-Oct-2004 - Gymnast Paul Hamm Gets to Keep Gold

20-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 4

20-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 3

19-Oct-2004 - Movies Released in 2004

18-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 2

18-Oct-2004 - The Crystal Prison

17-Oct-2004 - What If There's a Tie?

16-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 3

15-Oct-2004 - Endorsements for John Kerry

13-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 2

13-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 1

12-Oct-2004 - Ranked Choice Voting Hits San Francisco

7-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 1

7-Oct-2004 - Prince Adares Shows Signs of Royal Affinity

7-Oct-2004 - Controlling the U.S. Senate

7-Oct-2004 - Key Battleground States

6-Oct-2004 - Democratic Hopes for the 2004 Elections

6-Oct-2004 - Welcome to The Imperial Gazette

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Updated: October 31, 2004

Latest Electoral College Projections

In this, the final days before the election, The Imperial Gazette will try to keep tabs on the ever-changing Electoral College projections. And we'll provide a little analysis of the pros and cons of each source.

 

Overview

To win the presidency, an absolute majority of 270 of the Electoral College's 538 votes are necessary.

The current standings:

Source Bush Kerry Toss-Up Date
CBS 222 190 126 30-Oct-2004
CNN 227 207 104 28-Oct-2004
Charlie Cook 222 207 109 29-Oct-2004
Election Projection 259 279 - 30-Oct-2004
Electoral Expectations 272 266 0 30-Oct-2004
Electoral Vote Predictor #1 231 298 9 1-Nov-2004
Electoral Vote Predictor #2 287 244 7 1-Nov-2004
Federal Review 296 242 - 26-Oct-2004
First in the Nation 207 182 149 30-Oct-2004
First in the Nation (projected) 280 258 - 30-Oct-2004
Ed Fitzgerald (current) 255 283 104 30-Oct-2004
Ed Fitzgerald (projected) 259 279 104 28-Oct-2004
LA Times 168 153 217 30-Oct-2004
E. Alan Meece 266 272 - 30-Oct-2004
Mind the Gap 262 276 - 27-Oct-2004
National Journal 217 184 137 29-Oct-2004
New York Times 227 225 86 30-Oct-2004
NowChannel (was 2.004k.com) 245 283 10 31-Oct-2004
Political Oddsmaker 242 238 58 27-Oct-2004
Pollbooth 276 242 20 28-Oct-2004
Pollkatz 251 287 - 26-Oct-2004
President Elect 283 255 - 28-Oct-2004
MyDD (Chris Bowers) 247 291 - 1-Nov-2004
Race 2004 (today) 207 185 146 1-Nov-2004
Race 2004 (projected) 289 249 - 1-Nov-2004
Rasmussen 222 186 130 30-Oct-2004
Real Clear Politics 232 207 99 29-Oct-2004
Larry Sabato 276 262 - 26-Oct-2004
Robert Silvey 290 248 - 28-Oct-2004
Slate 266 272 - 30-Oct-2004
Strategisphere 274 264 - 27-Oct-2004
Triapas 281 257 - 28-Oct-2004
TruthIsAll 217 321 - 30-Oct-2004
USA Today 205 165 169 29-Oct-2004
Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis 255 283 - 30-Oct-2004
Zogby 286 231 - 28-Oct-2004

 

A Look at Some of the Sources

Some of our sources (like the Electoral Vote Predictor and MyDD) aggregate data from polls conducted by others, while others like Rasmussen conduct their own polls. Both approaches have their own strengths and weaknesses. Organizations that do their own polling have the benefit on following a common weighting methodology in each state. But many of them only target a few states, usually the battlegrounds, but even then they might miss a state that suddenly creeps up on the radar. The aggregators have an advantage of a greater diversity of approaches and more frequent updates, but can sometimes produce wacky results when different states come from different polls using different methodologies. (Even so, respected political analyst Charles Cooks warns against putting too much reliance into any one polling source.)

 

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

The Electoral Vote Predictor is one of the largest and most rigorous of the polling aggregators. In order to avoid any possible impropriety, the "Votermaster," as the webmaster calls himself, carefully uses all of the available polls, including paid and premium polls and even the ones that have come under fire for being partisan or using skewed methodology. He always uses the most recent poll available for a given state, which is based on the poll's middle date rather than starting or ending date. When multiple polls have the same mid-point, he uses the shortest poll as the one with the most accurate snapshot. If there's still a tie, he averages the tied polls' results.

Updated: October 26, 2004

EVP currently projects that Bush has at least a narrow lead in states totaling 285 Electoral Votes, while Kerry trails with 247. This includes some surprise projections of Bush carrying Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Hawaii, but losing Colorado, and Arkansas remains too close to call. Note, however, that most of these surprises for Bush come from Zogby, which has a Republican bias to their sampling methodology (which we'll discuss in another article).

 

NowChannel.com

NowChannel.com, formerly know as 2.004k.com, collects and aggregates other pollsters' data like the Electoral Vote Predictor. It uses a slightly differently methodology in that it determines which is the most recent poll by their release date rather than their midpoint. They ignore polls from blatantly partisan sources like Strategic Vision (which in 2000 predicted the day before the election that Bush would win over 400 Electoral Votes) as well as Internet-based polls like Zogby Interactive. One of the nicest things about their interface is the complete transparency - it's the easiest site to "dive under the hood" to check the data they're using.

Updated: October 26, 2004

2.004k.com currently shows Kerry winning with 287 Electoral Votes, including taking all three top major swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They also show Kerry taking a few of the other swingers, including Iowa and New Mexico, but losing Hawaii and Minnesota to Bush. Wisconsin remains tied in their most recent poll.

 

Rasmussen

Rasmussen conducts their own state-by-state telephone polls around the country. However, they do have some limiting flaws. First, they cut down on costs by using automated telephone systems rather than paid employees to call voters. Respondents are then asked by an automated machine to press a button on the phone to indicate their choice (e.g., "Press one if you plan to vote for Bush, press two if you plan to vote for Kerry"). This approach makes it impossible to properly screen for the respondents age and other criteria, but down allow for more frequent polling. The other flaw is that their site limits how frequently they update the free sections of their site. The aggregators who pay for Rasmussen subscription feeds get more frequent data, but those of us who are poor and unemployed have to rely on older data.

Updated: October 25, 2004

Rasmussen currently predicts that Bush will take 222 Electoral Votes while Kerry will take 207 votes. They've put a huge number of states back in the too-close-to-call column, including Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

 

MyDD

MyDD may be the most controversial source, as they are unabashedly pro-Democratic. They aggregate data from other polls, though (unlike the Electoral Vote Predictor) they don't include polls from sources like Strategic Vision that skew so far to the right that almost everyone believes they are too biased to be credible.

They take other pollsters data but re-analyzes it to predict the final outcome based on how current undecided voters are expected to skew. It's a controversial approach, but an interesting one worth examining. We'll see on election day whether their approach holds water or not.

Updated: October 24, 2004

MyDD currently predicts that based on how undecided voters are expected to break, Kerry will win with 304 Electoral Votes, including winning the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico. Iowa's seven Electoral Votes remain too close to call.

 

Race 2004

Race 2004 is another independent website that is collecting polls and aggregating the data to predict a winner.

Updated: October 26, 2004

Race 2004 shows a huge number of undecided states (accounting for 128 Electoral Votes). But they also project that on Election Day Kerry will have the advantage in the toss-up states and will narrowly pull out the election with 273 Electoral Votes:

 

2004. All original articles and commentaries published on this site remain the copyright of Kevin C. Goebel except where otherwise attributed. You may use excerpts with an attributed to The Imperial Gazette and a link to either www.cosmomovieawards.com/ig or directly to the excerpted article. For additional information, or to be alerted for new articles and updates, please email the Royal Scribe.