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27-Oct-2004 - The Last Straw

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27-Oct-2004 - Breaking Political News

27-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 5

26-Oct-2004 - Another Look at Taking Back the Senate

26-Oct-2004 - Breaking News of the Day

25-Oct-2005 - Breaking Political News of the Day

24-Oct-2004 - Can the Democrats Regain the House?

23-Oct-2004 - Early Voting Trends

23-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 4

22-Oct-2004 - Bush OKs New Corporate Tax Cut

22-Oct-2004 - Beware Fox News and MSNBC

21-Oct-2004 - Gymnast Paul Hamm Gets to Keep Gold

20-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 4

20-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 3

19-Oct-2004 - Movies Released in 2004

18-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 2

18-Oct-2004 - The Crystal Prison

17-Oct-2004 - What If There's a Tie?

16-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 3

15-Oct-2004 - Endorsements for John Kerry

13-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 2

13-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 1

12-Oct-2004 - Ranked Choice Voting Hits San Francisco

7-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 1

7-Oct-2004 - Prince Adares Shows Signs of Royal Affinity

7-Oct-2004 - Controlling the U.S. Senate

7-Oct-2004 - Key Battleground States

6-Oct-2004 - Democratic Hopes for the 2004 Elections

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October 23, 2004

Early Voting Trends


Republicans tend to vote like it was religion, while Democrats are historically more likely than Republicans to get distracted on election day and miss voting. Democratic victories often hinge on the party's ability to rally and mobilize the party faithful on election day.

And this year, Democratic Party officials aren't willing to risk a myriad of possible election day mishaps - bad weather, unexpectedly long lines, confusion over the correct polling place (especially in Florida where many longtime polling places were destroyed by the series of hurricanes that hit the state), or other factors. In the 30 states that allow for early voting (including many swing states), they're doing an unprecedently aggressive get-out-the-vote early campaign. And early data suggests that it's working.


Over 1.3MM Votes Already Cast

The Washington Post reports that in the eight states considered to be swing states for the election, over 1.3 million votes have already been cast. Of course, none of the ballots have been counted yet (or if they have, election officials are wisely not discussing the results), but data about early voters' party registrations are available, and that can provide a clue.

One national poll found that 5% of respondents claim to have already voted early, and 20% plan to do so before election day.



Campaign officials report that about 10% of the electorate has already voted in Nevada. By Thursday, over 86,000 voters had already voted early, a thirty percent increase from those who had voted by this same point in 2000, and another 20,000 have already sent back absentee ballots. In the Las Vegas area (which accounts for about 70% of the state's population), registered Democrats and Republicans were roughly even in early voting turnout. This weekend, labor unions plan to provide special bus services to help their members get to early voting polling locations. But in the Reno area, traditionally a Republican stronghold in the state, registered Democrats are turning out in strong numbers.


New Mexico

As with Nevada, about 10% of the electorate has already voted. New Mexico's Secretary of State predicts that as much as 50% of the voters will cast their ballots before election day rolls around on November 2nd.



More than 200,000 ballots have already been cast in this swing state. Historically, Democrats have an advantage with early voting here.

At this moment, 28.2% of the early ballots have come from registered Republicans, while 50.6% have come from Democrats and 21.1% from Independents. If polls regarding how Republicans, Democrats, and Independents plan to vote measure up, that would mean that Kerry has already banked 57.8% of the early votes in Iowa. One analyst believes that if this is correct, Kerry could lose the election day turnout by 1% and still win the state.



A sampling from eight counties reveals that Democrats are turning out to vote early in greater proportion than their share of registered voters, while Republicans are turning out in proportionally lower numbers.

In Republican-dominated Seminole County, for example, Democrats make up 31.7% of registered voters but account for 40% of the early voters. The same is occurring in Brevard County, another Republican stronghold, where the supervisor of elections acknowledged that Democrats are currently casting more ballots than Republicans.



Tens of thousands of voters have already voted in Colorado, which also has a tight open-seat U.S. Senate race. The Democratic Party in Denver has mailed a flier to their supporters that provides the locations of early voting polling booths.


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