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16-Dec-2004 - My Year of Living Dangerously

25-Nov-2004 - Corporate Support for Republicans

24-Nov-2004 - Seventy!

12-Nov-2004 - Quick Update

1-Nov-2004 - Election Eve News

1-Nov-2004 - Endorsement

1-Nov-2004 - Latest Polls

31-Oct-2004 - Words of Encouragement

31-Oct-2004 - Vote for Kerry Even in Safe States

31-Oct-2004 - Halloween Election News

30-Oct-2004 - Today's Political News

29-Oct-2004 - Political News of the Day

28-Oct-2004 - John Kerry's Historic Endorsements

28-Oct-2004 - 25 Years Combating LGBT Violence

28-Oct-2004 - Daily Political Updates

28-Oct-2004 - How You Can Protect Your Right to Vote

27-Oct-2004 - The Last Straw

27-Oct-2004 - Conservative Quotes for Kerry

27-Oct-2004 - Breaking Political News

27-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 5

26-Oct-2004 - Another Look at Taking Back the Senate

26-Oct-2004 - Breaking News of the Day

25-Oct-2005 - Breaking Political News of the Day

24-Oct-2004 - Can the Democrats Regain the House?

23-Oct-2004 - Early Voting Trends

23-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 4

22-Oct-2004 - Bush OKs New Corporate Tax Cut

22-Oct-2004 - Beware Fox News and MSNBC

21-Oct-2004 - Gymnast Paul Hamm Gets to Keep Gold

20-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 4

20-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 3

19-Oct-2004 - Movies Released in 2004

18-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 2

18-Oct-2004 - The Crystal Prison

17-Oct-2004 - What If There's a Tie?

16-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 3

15-Oct-2004 - Endorsements for John Kerry

13-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 2

13-Oct-2004 - Bits and Pieces, Volume 1

12-Oct-2004 - Ranked Choice Voting Hits San Francisco

7-Oct-2004 - Notable Quotes, Volume 1

7-Oct-2004 - Prince Adares Shows Signs of Royal Affinity

7-Oct-2004 - Controlling the U.S. Senate

7-Oct-2004 - Key Battleground States

6-Oct-2004 - Democratic Hopes for the 2004 Elections

6-Oct-2004 - Welcome to The Imperial Gazette

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October 18, 2004

Bits and Pieces, Volume 2

This edition of Bits and Pieces will probably be a little more political than the last one.

 

On Polls and Pundits

Yes, I know the polls are all over the map. I plan to do a more in-depth article about them, but I just haven't yet. Although I've been using Rasmussen in my spreadsheets, I no longer think they are very reliable. They aren't updated frequently enough for me (since I don't pay for their subscription service). I prefer the ones that aggregate other people's polls - especially the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 and 2.004k.com. Charles Cook, the respected editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, said in a Washington Post interview that it's best to look at an average of the polls rather than to cherry pick your favorites. And he singled out Rasmussen and Survey USA as being particularly bad because they use automated push-button systems where pollsters don't speak with the people being polled and don't screen properly for age.

I'll do a much more in-depth article soon about the polls, pollsters, and methodology strengths and weaknesses.

 

Former Republican Governor of Michigan Endorses Kerry

William Milliken, the Republican former Governor of Michigan for more than a decade (from 1969 to 1982), endorsed John Kerry today. In a three-page statement announcing his endorsement, Milliken stated, "This president has pursued policies pandering to the extreme right wing across a wide variety of issues and has exacerbated the polarization and the strident, uncivil tone of much of what passes for political discourse in this country today." You can read more about the endorsement in an article printed in the Detroit Free Press.

 

Jeb Bush is NOT Running for President in 2008

It's official. Jeb Bush, the current Governor of Florida and brother of the incumbent president, announced that he will not be running for president in 2008. My favorite comment on his declaration comes from the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: "Jeb Bush has stated he will not run for president in 2008. This opens the path for Neil Bush and Marvin Bush because the twins, Jenna and Barbara, won't be old enough to run in 2008."

The San Francisco Examiner's story on his announcement said that Republican Party officials in Florida were recently polled to see who they would like to see run for president in four years, and a third of them said Jeb Bush. The Examiner presented this as if it were a high figure. But really - he's the top elected official in Florida, and he'll have comfortably finished his second term before the next presidential race even starts, and only a third of the party officials in his own state like him?

 

San Francisco Elections - District 5

This morning I went to a candidates' debate at the Urban School. With 22 candidates running, it was a little awkward. (It was also awkward because I found out that it was a school assembly, and I was one of maybe five non-students/non-teachers there.) There were two back-to-back assemblies, each with about half of the candidates. Each candidate had a few moments to introduce themselves, and then a moderator presented a pre-submitted question for a candidate and chose a second candidate to respond. I'll do a more in-depth article about the District 5 race later, but here are some quick impressions.

I knew Robert Haaland was a strong candidate, but I didn't realize how funny and articulate he could be. I was impressed by how well he spoke to high school students about being transgendered (and how well they reacted). Bill Barnes was also great. In his opening statement, he talked about how he grew up in San Francisco, and when he was the age of the students at the assembly, he was trying to decide what to do with his life when he learned that he was HIV positive. He decided that he needed to make every moment count. A very impressive speaker and candidate. Ross Mirkarimi is one of the Green Party candidates and has the endorsement of out-going supervisor Matt Gonzalez. Okay, he has an impressive resume, but wow, what a bad speaker. He has the charisma of a plate of cold noodles. I don't get the impression that he'll be good at networking to be an effective legislator. He's rumored to be one of the front-runners but I find the guy kinda creepy. Lisa Feldstein initially turned me off early in the campaign - can't remember if it was something in her campaign literature, or something I read in the papers, but I wasn't impressed. But I have to say, hearing her speak, I'm totally turned around and she's a strong candidate for one of the slots on my ranked ballot. Tys Sniffen (great name!) seems like a great neighborhood activist. His campaign slogan is something like "Citywide vision, neighborhood focus." I get the sense from hearing him speak that there'll be a greater emphasis on the latter. He strikes me as the sort of guy who would do a good job advocating to fill the potholes and fix the streetlights (very important things, and all too often forgotten) but would finish his term without any significant accomplishment for the City as a whole. Andrew Sullivan, the chair of Rescue Muni, is Mayor Gavin Newsom's endorsed candidate. I wasn't that impressed, though he didn't have that much of a chance to speak. (None of them did.) Finally (for now), Nick Waugh. I like him. I like the issues he's advocating, though I think he's a bit short on specifics. (That's partly due to the short nature of the forum, but there aren't too many specifics on his website, either.) I seriously doubt he'll win (despite his endorsement from Vermont Governor and erstwhile presidential candidate Howard Dean), but I hope he does well enough to develop a future political career here.

 

Kerry Picks Up Major Newspaper Endorsements

In recent days, John Kerry has picked up some additional impressive newspaper endorsements - including the New York Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Boston Globe (of course), the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and even the Kansas City Star. A complete list of his newspaper endorsements can be found in the Kerry/Edwards Press Room. Editor & Publisher magazine reports that Kerry currently has endorsements from 48 newspapers with a combined circulation of 8,935,195, while George Bush has endorsements from 34 newspapers with a total circulation of 4,776,231. (At a quick glance, it looks like about a quarter of Bush's circulation figures are coming from Texas.)

 

San Francisco Voter and Don't Know Where to Go?

If you're a San Francisco voter and aren't sure where to vote, SFGov.org has a great polling place look-up service. Just enter your house number, street name, and street type (Street, Avenue, etc.) in separate boxes and it will give you an address and map.

 

2004. All original articles and commentaries published on this site remain the copyright of Kevin C. Goebel except where otherwise attributed. You may use excerpts with an attributed to The Imperial Gazette and a link to either www.cosmomovieawards.com/ig or directly to the excerpted article. For additional information, or to be alerted for new articles and updates, please email the Royal Scribe.